Introduction

Libya has failed to achieve the stability, democracy, and unity its people hoped for since the 2011 uprising that ousted Muammar Gaddafi. The open-ended delay of elections - originally scheduled for December 2021 - contributed to the political and security disorder, widening differences, and prolonging the stalemate among competing factions. The inability to hold elections sparked a struggle for power between rival factions, and two competing governments were formed: the Government of National Unity (GNU), led by Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh in Tripoli, and the Government of National Stability (GNS), supported by the eastern-based House of Representatives and led by Fathi Bashagha. This political division reflects Libya's long-established regional tensions, where western and eastern factions are struggling to control main institutions, including the Central Bank and the oil industry. 

As the standoff continued, armed militias fought violently - particularly in Tripoli and other strategic locations - destabilizing the nation even more. International mediation, including the one conducted by the United Nations, has been ongoingly blocked by conflicting political agendas in trying to bring Libya's leadership together and map a path toward elections. In the meantime, Libya's humanitarian and economic situation has deteriorated. The country's ample oil resources have been a subject of dispute, with blockades imposed by various groups bringing oil production and exports to a halt. 

The population continues to endure shortages of basic services, high living costs, and a prolonged migration crisis, with Libya remaining a key transit country for migrants attempting to cross the Mediterranean. With no solution in sight, Libya's revolution remains incomplete, and the nation has not been able to break a long-term cycle of violence, polarization, and instability. 

Political Landscape and Governance of Libya Today 

As Libya's security, economic, and political crisis intensifies, its ordinary citizens live under the constant threat of renewed violence even as they are set to vote in local elections. The country continues to be plagued by a fragile attempt at ending over a decade of chaos, which has dragged on since the collapse of the scheduled 2021 elections, amidst exacerbated internal divisions. Libya is de facto split today into two competing governments, each of which possesses its own parliament and security force running daily matters within its sphere. The state is consequently a de facto two-state system. (1)(2)

The widely recognized Libyan government is also typically a chief partner to other foreign governments and organizations seeking to advance their interests within the country. The Government of National Unity (GNU), for example, has been a key recipient of assistance from states like Turkey, whose government has provided military assistance and penned energy cooperation agreements, particularly within the oil and gas sectors. Similarly, Italy and other European nations have maintained close relations with the GNU, placing high on their list economic investment and security matters, including efforts to halt illegal migration. These foreign relations speak to the government's alignment with the strategic interests of external players, if not necessarily addressing the complex local dynamics or interests of all Libyan factions. (3)

At the same time, China and Russia have made themselves central actors in Libya through strategic economic partnerships that enable them to expand their influence on the African continent while circumventing the migration and border security concerns at the heart of European and American interests. China, for instance, has focused on acquiring access to Libya's oil resources and utilization of its Belt and Road Initiative to spur infrastructure construction, such as the renovation of roads, ports, and airports. This is consistent with China's overall approach of expanding its economic footprint in Africa without participating in Libya's politics. (4)

Russia, in turn, has assisted the Khalifa Haftar-controlled Libyan National Army (LNA) with military aid, Wagner Group mercenaries, and diplomatic support, while also trying to reinforce its own military presence in the Mediterranean and acquire Libyan oil resources. Russia and China have benefited from the failure of the Western powers to possess an integrated policy, taking advantage of the absence of a unified plan to further their own interests. 

While the EU and the U.S. have focused on pushing for democratic reforms and political reconciliation, Russia and China have avoided these concerns, gaining strategic military and economic alliances to ensure their control over Libya. As a result, Western power in the region has waned, and the lack of a clear and consistent policy has created a vacuum that China and Russia are all too eager to fill, diminishing Western power further in Libya and North Africa. 

In December 2024, the U.N's senior Libyan official, Stephanie Koury, announced a fresh strategy to end a three-year impasse and nudge the divided North African nation towards a national election. But though the Western nations still call for elections as a pillar of democracy, most Libyans are now widely disillusioned.

They are increasingly seeing these elections as a tool of legitimizing a government where foreign agendas are being prioritized over the nation's pressing needs—governance, stability, and institution building. Without any constitutional basis, widespread corruption, arbitrary detentions, and warlord and militia rule, Libyans do not feel that elections now will lead to fair or meaningful elections. (5)

Libya's Economic Crisis: Power Struggles and Oil Revenue Disputes

Even on the economic front, Libya is not in a better position. The economic growth of Libya in 2025 faces a dwindling number of challenges, which are politically motivated by instability, power struggle for financial institutions, and shifts in oil dynamics. 

The entry of Arkenu Oil Company - a private firm linked to eastern Libya warlord Khalifa Haftar - has shattered the centuries-old monopoly of the National Oil Corporation (NOC), as at least $600 million worth of oil revenues bypassed the Central Bank of Libya (CBL) since May 2024. This is increasing the stranglehold of armed groups on the oil sector, as Arkenu was able to secure direct involvement in key oilfields such as Sarir and Messla. Even as NOC continues to be Libya's biggest exporter, the rise of Arkenu is a sign of a new normal that features corruption, economic mismanagement, and the general orientation of the nation's economy. (6)

Libya is also confronted with an intensifying crisis over control of the CBL, one which has already seen a national oil blockade. The western-supported government's decision to remove seasoned CBL governor Sadiq al-Kabir has been forcefully opposed by eastern elements, who suspended oil production in reprisal. With rival assertions of control - both publishing decrees on the CBL website and the other running the bank's social media accounts - the economy has ground to a halt, halting state salary payments, freezing banking operations, and ending imports. 

With the blockade still in place, Libya's primary source of state  revenue is in jeopardy, with prolonged disruptions risking escalating electricity shortages and public unrest and dissatisfaction among the population. 

The political battle has more far-reaching consequences as institutions in Libya remain split east-west with no imminent solution in sight. Libya's financial system, which originally served as a unifying force, supporting the ongoing operation of state institutions, is now increasingly being sucked into the play of the political struggle for power.

International mediation has been largely obstructed by the ongoing political divisions, lack of cooperation between rival factions, and the absence of a clear diplomatic framework, which increases the likelihood of re-escalation of conflict .. With oil revenues being diverted and economic instability increasing, Libya's future is as much in the balance as ever, with politicians and militias vying to dominate the country's vast wealth. (7)

 Libya's Humanitarian Crisis: Mass Graves and Foreign Priorities Over Human Rights

Libya's growing humanitarian crisis is also escalating, as authorities discover new mass graves of dead migrants. The International Organization for Migration (IOM) has recently been appalled at the revelation of two mass graves in the southeast where at least 49 bodies were found in Jikharra and Al-Kufra - some of which were found to have been shot dead - claiming human trafficking and savage brutality. Further searches have since revealed additional graves, bringing the total to 55 sites and at least 39 bodies that have been discovered, with the authorities expecting more. Libya has been used as a transit route for migrants fleeing poverty and conflict in Africa and braving the Sahara desert and Mediterranean with the hope of reaching Europe. But with the chaos of post-2011 Libya, migrants are being increasingly exploited by smugglers, militias, and horrific conditions in detention centers.

The IOM has registered around 1,000 migrant deaths and disappearances in Libya as of 2024, and more than 22% have occurred on land routes. As world bodies insist on more regional coordination to protect migrants, Libyan authorities vowed to investigate the fatalities and recover the bodies with respect. However, with the raging conflict, bad governance, and thriving illegal people trafficking network, the humanitarian emergency rages on, underscoring the urgent need for global action to protect vulnerable people. (8)(9)(10)

While states do prioritize their geopolitical and economic interests first, the recent extradition of Libyan police officer Osama Elmasry Njeem by Italy is extremely dubious, particularly because of Italy's membership in the European Union. Njeem, a wanted individual by the International Criminal Court (ICC) for serious crimes against humanity, including murder, torture, and rape, was detained in Italy but released after a few hours and flown back to Libya in a state aircraft. The move puts into question Italy's commitment to the values established under the Treaty on European Union (TEU), which promote human rights and justice. Although geopolitical and security agendas typically inform state action, Italy's conduct in this case seems to contravene its stated intention to promote international legal norms, especially given the EU's strong focus on human rights and accountability for atrocity crimes.

While Italy cited releasing him on grounds of "state security", the action has enraged many and left questions, and the ICC requested the motives behind the action. Opposition leaders wished to be informed of the reasons for it. This event demonstrates how Italy, and indeed other Western nations, still puts relations with Libya ahead of human rights concerns, particularly illegal immigration and energy security issues. Economic strategic partnerships and management of migration that Libya provides to European powers has rationalized relations with those near abysmal human rights violations. By covering these players from accountability, the West is in fact fostering the abuses of today in Libya and showing the world how political and economic interests do indeed come first at the expense of the well-being of vulnerable populations. (11)(12)

Libya's ongoing struggles for stability, governance, and control of the economy are further fueling the humanitarian crisis in the country. The politicization of the rift between the rival groups, the economic battle for oil production and the Central Bank, and the victimization of vulnerable migrants, all point to the continuing instability.The country's division into rival governments is only worsening the situation with both parties fighting for dominance while the people suffer.

Meanwhile,  the focus on economic and strategic partnerships, seen in Italy's controversial release of a war crimes suspect, is still showing the primacy of geopolitical interests above human rights. Without strong international engagement that is interested in stopping the root causes of the war and the interests of Libyan citizens, Libya will remain trapped in a cycle of violence, exploitation, and political stagnation.

Sources

(1) "Libyan Leaders Agree to Form New Unified Government." U.S. News & World Report, March 10, 2024. https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2024-03-10/libyan-leaders-agree-to-form-new-unified-government.

(2) "UN Launches New Libya Election Initiative Amid Political Deadlock." Associated Press, accessed March 18, 2025. https://apnews.com/article/un-libya-election-deadlock-initiative-road-map-eca3b6af8c3525a769d0366db3afd46c.

(3) "Turkey Says Tripoli Backs Energy Deal Despite Court Suspension." Reuters, January 12, 2023. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/turkey-says-tripoli-backs-energy-deal-despite-court-suspension-2023-01-12.

(4) "Exploiting Chaos: Russia in Libya." Center for Strategic and International Studies, accessed March 18, 2025. https://www.csis.org/blogs/post-soviet-post/exploiting-chaos-russia-libya.

(5) "Strategic Ambitions: Russia’s Deepening Military and Geopolitical Footprint in Libya." Georgetown Security Studies Review, June 24, 2024. https://georgetownsecuritystudiesreview.org/2024/06/24/strategic-ambitions-russias-deepening-military-and-geopolitical-footprint-in-libya.

(6) "Libya's First Private Oil Firm Grows in Eastern Commander's Shadows." Reuters, February 17, 2025. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/libyas-first-private-oil-firm-grows-eastern-commanders-shadows-2025-02-17.

(7) "Libya Central Bank Showdown Risks Spiraling into Wider Crisis." Reuters, August 30, 2024. https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/libya-central-bank-showdown-risks-spiralling-into-wider-crisis-2024-08-30.

(8) "Bodies of 29 More Migrants Found in Southeast Libya, Security Official Says." Reuters, February 13, 2025. https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/bodies-29-more-migrants-found-southeast-libya-security-official-says-2025-02-13.

(9) "Libya Recovers 11 Bodies of Migrants." Daily Post, February 14, 2025. https://dailypost.ng/2025/02/14/libya-recovers-11-bodies-of-migrants.

(10) "UN Migration Agency Voices Alarm over Mass Graves Found in Libya." Middle East Monitor, February 10, 2025. https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20250210-un-migration-agency-voices-alarm-over-mass-graves-found-in-libya.

(11) "Italy’s Meloni Says She Is Being Investigated over Release of Libya Suspect." Al Jazeera, January 28, 2025. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/1/28/italys-meloni-says-she-is-being-investigated-over-release-of-libya-suspect.

(12) "Italian Premier Giorgia Meloni Says She Is Being Investigated for Repatriating Libyan Warlord." Euronews, January 28, 2025. https://www.euronews.com/2025/01/28/italian-premier-giorgia-meloni-says-she-is-being-investigated-for-repatriating-libyan-warl.